Stronger Yen on the horizen
Alot of talk in the market today about stronger numbers in Japan in the coming weeks. This is anticipated to bring about more aggressive rate rises from the Bank of Japan. I am not sure this plays out but looking at the markets this morning clearly the Yen is stronger and looking to continue that way for the near term. The bank of China did nothing over the weekend and Usd/Hkd bounced slightly from its Friday lows. I am still long Usd/Jpy but I am watching very carefully.
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
Rumour China widens the band this weekend
I am hearing a rumour that the Bank of China widens the band on its currency this weekend. The rumour seemed to come from the fact that Usd/Hkd moved from 7.7740 to 7.7690 and that Bank of China was the main seller. I am hearing there was good buy orders all the way down and all filled in.
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
Dollar continues under pressure…..
Looking at the markets this moring I see a continuation from yesterdays close. The dollar is under alot of pressure and I believe it is because the market perseves the FED will be on hold. This I agree with. I wrote yesterday that I liked Eur/Jpy to take out the 147.91 high and so far this trade has proven costly. I am watching 146.75 level for a stop (soft stop). This shift in the FED outlook should benifit Emerging Market currencies. Usd/Brl,Ars,Mxn have all been trading lower of late and I continue to see this as the bigger picture trade.
These are the FX Trading Ideas for Today.
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
Beige book points toward a slowing economy….
The Beige book today came out on the weaker side, stating that “The pace of Economic growth has slowed”. It also stated that “rises in wages,prices of final goods stayed modest”. The market took this as another sign that the FED will not be raising rates in August as Eurodollar futures rallied over 6 pips and the dollar took another tumble. I foresee more U.S. dollar weakness in the weeks/months ahead.
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
Stronger numbers out of Europe
IFO surveys out of Germany last night came in slightly behind expectations but clearly viewed by the market as showing continued growth in Germany…and therefore EuroZone. This has sent Euribor futures lower in anticipation of increased interest rates in the near term. I think this could be an excuse to buy the Euro (if one is needed) and I think it would be best to buy against the Yen. It has made a move overnight and I am looking for it to take out the 147.91 high.
I continue to think that U.S. Dollar weakness is in our future.
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
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