Asia in Vogue
Asian currencies have been very very bid of late. I have been trying to develop some trading themes for the coming year and it certainly looks to me like more of the same is in order. I know that is the easy way out as for right now I do not have any sizable positions (lower Mexican rates being the largest) but it seems to me there is no reason to fight the trend. U.S. rates should continue to be range bound with the next move (dare I say) up…. No I actually do not think we will see any change for the next 6 months (minimum), and there is really no way to know wgich direction they will go as it all depends on the numbers (but they are looking stronger for now).
Yield baskets have worked very well for the past two years and I definitly like them into next year. I will be writing more on this, in detail, in the coming weeks. I still have Iceland on my radar, but do not feel it is the right time to jump into the water. When I do I will post, but I think we are 3-6 months (at least ) away from that. Turkey, same story. When rates are well into double digits as both of these countries are, oppotunites will be present at some point. So as my Scout master used to tell me….BE PREPARED.
Good Luck to all……
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
Emerging Markets backing up abit….
Emerging Market currencies are weakening abit this morning as it looks like many dealers are away and looking to cut back on risk as the turn of the year approaches. I am doing my best to stay out of any positions as I think these thin markets can only cause trouble.
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
Happy Holidays…
Euro Continues range bound
I cut my long Euro position at 1.3205. Currently I am sitting flat as I expect the markets to be more illiquid as the days progress toward the New Year. Overall I would not be surpried to see a weaker dollar, and if you must trade (and why must anyone trade) I would attack it from the short dollar side.
FXTRADEINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
Thailand Restrictions…Continued.
Today the Finance Minister stated:
“Thailand excludes equities investments from the Baht measure”
I am not so sure this is going to make the situation any better. From what I am hearing this new statement was made in response to the Equity markets getting hit hard overnight. Also I am hearing that the Military (remember there was a Coup in Sept)ordered this new measure. All this news certainly does not make me (if I were an investor) comfortable. I would think that any bounce in the equity or bond market will be met with selling from forgeign investor’s.
For the “big dollar” I am currently long Euro/Usd at 1.3158. I will leave a stop below 1.3120. It feels to me that the market is looking for any and all opportunites to sell dollars.
FXTRADINGIDEAS@AOL.COM
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