It’s Dangerous out there.
Well today marked the ending of the worst month of my career. Although I am not happy about losing money I think it is good that it is behind me and I now look forward to new opportunites. These markets are very nervous. Look at today’s price action. Stocks sell off and futures go bid and every Emerging Market gets sold off. I suggest trading smaller positions and taking profits (and losses) slightly quicker then usual.
Good Luck and Good Forex trading
It’s Dangerous out there.
Well today marked the ending of the worst month of my career. Although I am not happy about losing money I think it is good that it is behind me and I now look forward to new opportunites. These markets are very nervous. Look at today’s price action. Stocks sell off and futures go bid and every Emerging Market gets sold off. I suggest trading smaller positions and taking profits (and losses) slightly quicker then usual.
Good Luck and Good Forex trading
Yield Monkey’s look on in Horror
OK,So riding the wave of Emerging Market Joy has finally got me. And got me good! The rick aversion theme was on in full force. I at first fought it, then tried to square up, now I am in survivor mood. As a friend said to me yesterday, “This week has been a long month”! Ditto from me. But what is happening and more importantly what will happen?
What is happening is that the market has begun to believe how bad this Sub-Prime issue is. How it has effected the housing issue in a major way and how it could eventually put the U.S. economy in a real recesses ion. No one want to say it but the possibility is real. Think about your own situation, 401k which looked so nice just a week ago looks quite venerable right now. In times like this do you go out and buy that new plasma screen TV or do you put off that purchase on til a later time. On a larger issue if no one is buying homes then an economy really slows. New home buyers, renovate (you need to hire workers), buy new appliances(Durable goods) and need to furnish the new spaces. I believe this is one of the biggest drivers of an economy. Not to mention if the war in Iraq ever starts to deescalate, then there will be alot of young men and women coming home looking for work.
What will happen in my opinion we have more to come. Remember I have been quite wrong in my prediction’s over the past few weeks (look at my P/L for more confirmation). Every rally in Emerging currencies is faced with new sales as established shorts are looking to exit. Also any new shorts, have very tight stop losses attached, propelling the market higher. Before I left the office yesterday, there were a few Hedge Funds sniffing around for offers (dollar offers) in any EM currency. The official close in Brazil was 1.8990 but was trading at 1.9150/00 when I walked out. Bad News. I have tried my best to square up, but Argentina, one of my number one plays all year, continues to remind me why I hated trading this currency back in 2000-01. Interest rates have gone to 25% and liquidity to next to no thing. This combination has resulted in great P/L pain for me.
This week I will definitely square up everything possible. EVERYTHING. After that I start again, and if all else fails I can begin to ask the age old question…..
Would you like fries with that Sir?
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.
Yield Monkey’s look on in Horror
OK,So riding the wave of Emerging Market Joy has finally got me. And got me good! The rick aversion theme was on in full force. I at first fought it, then tried to square up, now I am in survivor mood. As a friend said to me yesterday, “This week has been a long month”! Ditto from me. But what is happening and more importantly what will happen?
What is happening is that the market has begun to believe how bad this Sub-Prime issue is. How it has effected the housing issue in a major way and how it could eventually put the U.S. economy in a real recesses ion. No one want to say it but the possibility is real. Think about your own situation, 401k which looked so nice just a week ago looks quite venerable right now. In times like this do you go out and buy that new plasma screen TV or do you put off that purchase on til a later time. On a larger issue if no one is buying homes then an economy really slows. New home buyers, renovate (you need to hire workers), buy new appliances(Durable goods) and need to furnish the new spaces. I believe this is one of the biggest drivers of an economy. Not to mention if the war in Iraq ever starts to deescalate, then there will be alot of young men and women coming home looking for work.
What will happen in my opinion we have more to come. Remember I have been quite wrong in my prediction’s over the past few weeks (look at my P/L for more confirmation). Every rally in Emerging currencies is faced with new sales as established shorts are looking to exit. Also any new shorts, have very tight stop losses attached, propelling the market higher. Before I left the office yesterday, there were a few Hedge Funds sniffing around for offers (dollar offers) in any EM currency. The official close in Brazil was 1.8990 but was trading at 1.9150/00 when I walked out. Bad News. I have tried my best to square up, but Argentina, one of my number one plays all year, continues to remind me why I hated trading this currency back in 2000-01. Interest rates have gone to 25% and liquidity to next to no thing. This combination has resulted in great P/L pain for me.
This week I will definitely square up everything possible. EVERYTHING. After that I start again, and if all else fails I can begin to ask the age old question…..
Would you like fries with that Sir?
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.
Beckham Mania hit’s the States.
I was flipping through the TV stations last night when I came upon ESPN and saw the Chelsea vs LA Galaxy game on. I could not help but imagine the enormous pressure that Beckham must be feeling at this moment. Sure he is used to it, as he has played top level “Football” for many years but it seems to me that the MLS is pinning all it’s hopes on this man. I know what you are thinking, for 250 mio dollars you would take the pressure too. But remember this man was already rich and famous and could have written his “ticket” to just about anywhere he wanted to play (for a hell of a lot of money). So why here, why now ? I think this is an interesting situation.
I know in my career there has been many times that I could have “coasted” (for lack of a better term). I was up budget, things were going well. Why rock the boat? I was due for a good bonus (ntg special), BUT, if I pushed the envelope I could have gotten ab it more. Or when I managed a group of traders, I could have listened to the direction of upper management (been basically a Yes man) or fought for what I believed in and made a few waves. To be honest, I think there is a happy medium here. I think it is the ability to manage both up and down. This is something I have learned in the last 3 years. Prior to that I was a very poor manager but now I think I am quite good (although I have no one working for me) as I have learned the skills (and still learning)of managing.
Back to Beckham. It seems that Beckham is a guy looking to branch out. His contract is not just to play Soccer but I am sure TV/Movies deals also. He is not someone who sits idly by and lets life direct him but rather he directs life. I think that is a good thing. In 2003 I was told by a previous employer that although they felt I was a good trader, they did not feel I was a good manager. Therefore they were taking away my managerial responsibilities and were going to “let you sit in the corner and trade”. Well although I now agree that I was not a very good manager at the time, I could never let anyone put a cap on me so I accepted that role until I could find another opportunity. Is this what happened to Beckham? Remember earlier this year he was first relieved of his captain title on the British national team, and later taken off it all together. I am not sure but I do think that moving on, looking for new opportunities and situations, although quite scary at times, is a good thing.
Here is the story of Beckham’s first LA Galaxy game from the
USA Today.
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.
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