Trading….
Psychology, in my opinion, has always been the single most important aspect to successful trading. Emotions, not panicking, and being able to see the “forest through the trees” is very important.
In todays Wall Street Journal Meir Statman wrote an excellent article entitled The Mistakes we make - and Why we make them. I think this is must reading for all traders.
CLICK HERE to read the article and please let me know what you think of it.
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading
More on Michael Vick
So the Michael Vick story gets more interesting. America is turning out to be quite forgiving and there could be some money to be made for the Eagles and the NFL (not to mention Models etc etc) out of Mr Vick being back on the football field.
Click Here to read the story on Daily Finance.
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading…..
Michael Vick, the NFL and Trading.
So, Michael Vick was signed by the Philadelphia Eagles this week. Not only signed but signed to a pretty substantial contract. When I first heard the story I was a bit surprised, not by Michael Vick signing a contract, but rather by the size of the contract and the team that signed him. I decided to look at this situation as I would a trade, balance out the risk and rewards and see if the gamble is worth it. When you enter into a trade you need to know the cost of entering the trade, the risks involved in the trade and the potential benefits. Lets start with the cost’s in this situation, 1.6 million dollars. He will get that for the 2009-2010 season whether he plays 100 plays a game or Zero. Therefore the cost to enter this trade is 1.6 million dollars. Risks are next. Here it is a little difficult to know as I have not actually talked with Mr. Vick, but lets take a look at his actions. First, he admitted his guilt (I know after first saying he was innocent), went to prison and lost just about everything. All may I add was deserved. Now both PETA and the Humane Society have come out with statements on Vick’s efforts to rehabilitate himself (CLICK HERE). Protests, maybe (PETA?). A public Service announcement, talks to youth groups, a real active participant in the community in an attempt to rehabilitate his image is in my opinion a much higher probability. Therefore negative risks from society are limited. He seems to want to rehabilitate his image and will do everything in his power to achieve that (one wrong move and he would get cut and no one would touch him). The bigger risk I see is from his play, or that of Donavan McNabb’s. For years there has been a Love/Hate relationship with the fans of Philadelphia and Donavan McNabb. A couple of bad games (will it even take that long) or a couple of good plays from Vick out of the “wildcat” quarterback position and a full fledged controversy would be in affect. This is the biggest risk that I see, a quarterback controversy on a team already picked to go to the Super Bowl. Benefits, well first and foremost a former first round draft pick being signed for a fraction of his previous value. Insurance against an injury to Donavan McNabb (see Tom Brady 2008-09). From a business perspective Michael Vick once had the highest selling jersey in the NFL. Could history repeat itself? Also from what I have seen he seems truly interested in redeeming himself. If that is the case he would be a public relations dream. As I stated earlier a very public figure counseling the youth of America on how decisions you make can effect your life. Therefore the benefits, a top flight player, insurance against injury and a former star player looking to redeem himself are very powerful arguments. From a business perspective I think it is a winning “Trade”.
I am sure the the owner Jeffery Lurie sat down with his staff and went over a similar criteria.
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.
Europe Recovering…..
I just returned from a few days away and I picked up the Wall Street Journal and saw the following, Europe Recovers as U.S. Lags. This certainly took me a little by surprise as I expected the U.S. to pull out of the recession ahead of Europe. It seems that the consumer in both Asia and Europe have returned quicker then that of the consumer in the U.S. This, according to the article, could help the U.S. “by lifting American companies’ exports while U.S. consumers rebuild their battered finances.” Looking around at friends and co-workers (former and present) it will take some time for the U.S. consumer to get back on their feet. Credit is a diminishing commodity and as such will be more difficult to get in order to stimulate the economy. Although I think that the U.S. will get to spending quickly (we tend to have short memories and LOVE to spend) it will not be with the “gusto” of previous recovery’s. I do however think that the Holiday season coming up (Ok, I know a little early to be bring it up) could be quite active. Last year people really cut back and will do all they can to “make up” where it is possible.
As for trades, I have been away for a week and left a Euro Short position on the books. It is still there and I continue to have levels at which I will be adding to it. I am leaving the orders unchanged. I am heading off for another week away and will look at all of my positions when I get back to the office on August 24.
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.
Another perspective on Cash for Clunkers
Here is another perspective on the Cash for Clunkers Program. Are these people taking advantage of a situation or just dealing with the hand they are dealt?
CLICK HERE to read the article on Daily Finance and let me know what you think.
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.
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